Nebraska at Southern Miss. - analysis and pick

[BigGamesOnly]

When I was watching the Broncos run all over the Raiders in Monday night's game I thought it was all over early. There had been other teams during the weekend that showed the same indication of rushing dominance which lead that team to a large victory.

As a few have said on this forum before, So. Miss. gives up nearly 5 yards per rush. Nebraska is currently averaging nearly 300 yards per game rushing at 4.4 yds./rush. One of Nebraska's earlier foes, Utah State, gave up an average of 4.1 yards per rush. Nebraska ended up scoring 31 points in that game.

On the other side of the ball, Nebraska is first in the nation in yards allowed per game. So. Miss. averages around 300 yards per game and averages around 17 points per game. Nebraska's superior defense should shave 7 to 10 points off that average.

In summary, Nebraska will do what they have done for the last 40 years and that is run. I don't see how the So. Miss. defense will slow down this rushing machine. Only excessive turnovers or penalties will prevent Nebraska from covering this game.

Nebraska (24 pts. - 31 pts.)
So. Miss. (7 pts. - 10 pts.)

 

[kbmnm247]

I'm with you BGOnly, good luck man

 

[NASDAQ]

I beg to differ. Stats only go so far. Southern Miss is capable of putting up points, they will focus more on the run defense as Nebraska has NO passing game, and more importantly, it's a Thursday night game on ESPN with a home dog getting more than a TD and FG. BARK BARK! Vegas is loving all this Nebraska cash flowing in.

By the way, the total is set at 37/38, that should raise the red flag for most players. That line says this game is going UNDER! Very rarely do you see a line this low on an ESPN Thursday night game where the public will just pound it over.

If this game goes under 37 and So Miss puts up 2 TD's, they will cover the spread. Good luck, I will pass on this game and watch it, but have to be careful on this one.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

NASDAQ:

You are right about stats only going so far. I guess I wanted to show that So. Miss. will be powerless to slow down Nebraska's run game whether they focus on it or not. Penn St. was unable to slow it down as well.

I always enjoy reading your comments whether they go for or against my picks. Thanks for stopping in.

Good luck.

 

[NASDAQ]

BG, no problem...My problem is this. I was on Penn St when they played Nebraska and the Huskers out rushed them by 293 yards, yet they were not able to cover the 10 pt spread, and that was at home. And we know how badly PSU is struggling this year. Their D is porous as hell. They are giving up 5.7 yards a carry!

I'm not gonna lie, my system said to take Nebraska if the line was listed anywhere from -9.5 or more, and to take So Miss if for some reason it was knocked down to +9 or less, but can't find it in me to back a ranked team, laying points on the road, on a Thursday night game, and with lots of public support. To think this line opened at -7.5 is very odd to me, but can Vegas really be that far off? If you got -9.5 I think you have value, but -10+ is a bad number for Nebraska bettors.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Here is another reason why stats don't tell the whole picture. Nebraska was stopped by turnovers and penalties in the red zone against Penn State. They played well enough to cover if it were not for this.

I believe you mean Penn State gives up 5.7 yards per pass, not per carry right? I have it at 4.1 yards per carry which is better than So. Miss. As I mentioned, if they can avoid penalties and turnovers they will more than cover.

 

[jimmymo]

NASDAQ

i was beginning to think i was the oonly guy other than Vegas on S. Miss -- I'm not overdoing by any means, nor do I feel this is a strong, strong play, but USM is the play

GL

 

[soccerbob]

BigGames- I wish you well on this one. I would play Nebraska in this spot if I was assured that Jamal Lord would not attempt a pass in the game. He is absolutely horrible. This guy is so bad that in the Penn St game, Nebraska just ran the ball the whole second half because this stiff kept Penn St in the game with a key turnover and countless poor throws in the first half. Everytime this guy drops back in the pocket, Cornhusker fans everywhere crawl under their couch.

You mentioned in your first post that the only way this game is close is with turnovers and penalties. I strongly agree. The problem is that Nebraska has been very sloppy on offense and taken too many drive stalling penalties. When you mix in Jamal "the human turnover" Lord, there's just too many questions about this Nebraska offense to make it a play for me. Their defense has been outstanding and the special teams have played well.

Best of luck on your play.

 

[ATX]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>By the way, the total is set at 37/38, that should raise the red flag for most players. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Good point NAS.

what that tells me, even louder than the under, is that S. MISS has a LOT of value, especially with the line move. You dont see too many 10 point spreads with a total under 40, and I love the fact the public will most likely be all over NEB and the dog is at home under the bright lights.

BGO, it's tough to go against Nebraska in this spot esp. with the SMiss QB situation, but a lot of times statistics like you mention start to reverse, in other words the oddsmaker doesnt count on what has happened in the last couple of games to continue, in a lot of cases. Think of it this way, by taking NEB -10 or -10.5 you really are counting on NEB to win by at least 13 and with a spread of 37 now that is a little more unlikely. I would hate to warn you off a winner, but I have seen this situation many times with a cover by the home dog on national TV. Best of luck with whatever you decide.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Hey guys:

Are the books trying to keep bettors off Neb. since there is such support for them? The reason I ask is because the line opened at -7.5 which would persuade people not to bet on them. Now that it is at -10 that line encourages people to lay off Neb. as well.

ATX:

I know what you mean about stats reversing themselves. Just like trends eventually reverse themselves.

I can see a book giving a 10-point spread with a 37/38 total if they believe the dog won't score much at all. That could be true with the defense Nebraska has. My projections have a total ranging between 31 - 41 points with a margin of victory ranging from 14 - 24 points.

soccerbob:

I'm with you. I don't trust Lord as QB for Neb. But this So. Miss. team doesn't even match up to a bad Penn St. team that beat the spread due to turnovers and penalties.

Thanks to all for chiming in. This is what I was hoping to get for a good discussion.

 

[RobFunk]

its true nebraska will run the ball. but running consumes time and it only takes a few time consuming posessions where NEB doesnt come away with TD's or even FG's to make that 10.5 all the more tasty. this outrageous line move along with being a DD home dog on ESPN thursday as a team without much acclaim makes for a strong play on s.miss.

as for the neb/penn st. game they each had 2 TO's and neb had 42 more penalty yards. big whoop. penn st. is only slighty better than s.miss. you throw in the fact neb/ps was a home game for neb and the fact we get 10.5 at home with s.miss i gotta say this play has some great chances.

 

[NASDAQ]

Great commentary from all.

Should be a great game to watch and as always will learn a lot from it.

 

[RollTide99]

I like So Miss and the under as weel. So Miss +16.5 and Under 43 looks real good to me on a teaser.

 

[LonnieIzac]

there is somthing wrong here neb opens up at 7.5 now at -11

 

[bhg]

I think its important to distinguish teams home and away performance. Nebraska hasn't played on the road yet. Southern Miss allowed 6 points at home to a memphis team that put up 30+ on Ole Miss the week before. Sure DAngelo Williams ran on them but you have to believe Southern miss was more focused on Wimprine and the pass. Nebraska is one dimensional and Southern Miss will be able to focus soundly on that.

 

[Jarbo]

I saw an article in the USA Today, that was talking about how big this game is for S. Miss.
It referenced a player who said it was hard to keep focused on the current opponent when Neb. was 2 weeks then 1 week away. They have put in 3000 extra seats for this game. They even quoted the S. Miss radio announcer who has been around since 1974, as saying he can't remember a bigger opponent with Neb's tradition and ranking ever coming into " The Rock"

+11 is looking very good to me.

Luck

 

[jstu11]

Jarbo.....Don't be fooled by some hype,for the last 10 years every game has been huge for the opponent of Neb....

They play nobody.....Your 11 won't even be good,but I'll take my -9.5 instead.


Don't bet to much


Nebraska ROLLS.......God that kills me to say that.I fvcken hate the "CORNCHUCKERS"

 

[MPriorCanKu]

Is D'Angelo Williams supposed to play? Didn't he suffer a concussion last week?

 

[RobFunk]

D'Angelo Williams starting QB for s.miss is out 4 weeks with a concussion

 

[RobFunk]

The Golden Eagles rank 107th nationally in scoring offense at just 14.0 ppg, and their per game average of just 299.3 ypg ranks 95th. Mickey D'Angelo has been rather accurate in completing nearly 60 percent of his passes, but he has thrown for a grand total of just 418 yards with only one TD through the first three games. In USM's recent win over Memphis, D'Angelo hit the mark on only 4-of-11 pass attempts for 58 yards with an INT before leaving the game in the first half with an injury. The concussion he sustained is likely going to keep him sidelined for a little while, leaving the offense in the somewhat suspect hands of Dustin Almond, who came on in relief of D'Angelo in the Memphis game and connected on just 3-of-14 passes for 44 yards. The star of the Golden Eagles' win was RB Tim Blackwell, who picked up a season-high 96 yards and a TD on just 15 carries. Blackwell has rushed for 215 yards and two scores this season. His per carry average of 5.4 yards is impressive, but without the threat of a passing attack, opposing defenses, particularly of the ilk Nebraska brings into this contest, will catch on soon enough and certainly limit his production.